The market at a glance
September brought an increase in both new listings and closed transactions compared with August. ARMLS recorded 9,350 new listings and 5,672 closed sales. The median sale price was $450,000—the same as a year earlier—while the median sold price per square foot was $251.50. Together, these figures describe a market with ongoing activity rather than a broad, uniform surge in pricing.
These are marketwide ARMLS figures. They should not be read as Maricopa County-only results or as a complete census of Arizona real estate. Conditions differ by city, property type, price range and the particular homes available.
More choice, with negotiation depending on the property
Active inventory, excluding listings marked under contract accepting backups (UCB) or contingent on buyer sale (CCBS), reached 25,251. That was 4.38% above September 2025. ARMLS reported 4.45 months of supply, versus 3.98 a year earlier. The combination gives buyers a broader selection than last September, but it does not establish that every seller will accept a discount.
Under-contract listings—including pending, UCB and CCBS—totaled 6,057, down 10.28% year over year. That is a different measure from completed sales. It is worth watching in the next release, without treating one month’s contract count as a guarantee of what future closings or prices will do.
What this means for buyers
A wider selection creates room to compare similar properties carefully. Ask your agent to look at recent comparable sales, competing listings, property condition and the history of any price changes. A marketwide median cannot tell you what a particular home is worth or which offer terms a seller will accept.
The median time on market was 63 days, while the average was 86 days. The difference matters: some homes take much longer than the middle-of-the-market experience. A listing’s age can inform a conversation, but it does not by itself prove that the home is overpriced or that concessions will be available.
What this means for sellers
With active inventory higher than a year ago, a listing competes with more alternatives. Pricing should reflect nearby comparable properties and current competition—not simply a marketwide headline. Presentation, accurate property information and responsive communication remain practical ways to help buyers evaluate a home.
September’s median sale price increased 1.12% from August but was unchanged from a year earlier. Those two comparisons can both be true. They are not evidence that every property gained value during the month, and they do not promise a sale price or a closing timetable.
Mortgage rates: use a dated benchmark, then get a real quote
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported a 7.40% average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage on October 15, 2026, unchanged from the previous week. The comparable year-earlier reading was 6.27%. This is a national survey of conventional conforming purchase-loan applications, not a personalized offer, an Arizona-only rate or an annual percentage rate.
Buyers should ask a licensed mortgage lender for current pricing, qualification requirements and a complete payment estimate. Rate, points, closing costs, taxes, insurance and any association charges need to be considered together. This report does not assume a future refinance or predict where interest rates will go.
Key takeaways for October
More inventory and a steady year-over-year median price make property-specific comparisons more useful than sweeping market labels. Buyers can examine a wider set of alternatives; sellers benefit from understanding what is competing with their listing. Neither side should substitute a regional statistic for current comparable-property research.
This October edition uses September housing activity because that is the latest completed month in the ARMLS report reviewed. Future editions will be published on the first of each month using the latest available source releases—even when those releases cover an earlier month. Each edition keeps its original dates and can be shared through its own permanent link.